What can Westminster results tell us about Assembly results? 3. The Conservatives

Conservative vote share in the Welsh Assembly can be almost perfectly predicted based on Westminster vote share. The correlation is a mighty .97 with the closest thing to an outlier being Kirsty Williams’ heroics in Brecon.


As for change in vote share, no key Conservative seats appear to be outliers from a fairly healthy correlation of .55. Pontypridd stands out because of an enormous improvement in Conservative share of the vote in 2015, which was from a deposit-losingly low base.  Cardiff Central stands out as a relatively good result in the Assembly, perhaps because their vote was squeezed in 2015 – the seat was a high profile Labour-Lib Dem battleground.


The numbers bear out the perception that the Conservatives had a bad Assembly election – they got a mean of 20.2% of the vote, as opposed to 26.2% in 2015. Their direction of travel was also worse – a mean reduction of 3.8 percentage points as opposed to a gain of 1.3%. So the distribution of conservative votes across the country is extremely predictable based on Westminster results, but the overall level was a disappointment for them.



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